[NTLUG:Discuss] Speculations about fallout for Linux with the IBM sale?

[Robert Pearson]

lonny dahl wrote:
> >
> > Anyone have any ideas about what may happen to support for Linux now that
> > Big Blue is selling their desktop division to a Chinese company?  I know
> > China has their own distro of Linux, but has anyone heard if they'll
> > continue to offer desktop solutions with Linux or will they drink the M$
> > Koolaid?

Chris Cox wrote:
> IBM has an probably will be (for a long time) a big koolaid drinker.
> IMHO, IBM's support for Linux on the desktop was dismal... so it
> can only get better.  Feel free to correct me if you feel I'm
> off on this assessment.

"The Times, they are a changing!"
We are seeing another Fundamental shift in the Information
Technology (IT) paradigm which will complete in 2005. The last one was
in 2001.
If the economy stalls, the Fundamental shift won't complete until after 2005.
How much after 2005 depends on how badly the economy stalls, if it
does. The USA is the greatest economic engine in the world.
The stall prediction is not a political statement but based on the
economic fact that you cannot fight a war on two or more fronts,
Afghanistan, Iraq, + Philippines, Saudi Arabia, tomorrow?, and put a
chicken in every pot at home. We have tried it before and won most of
the wars, some were draws, but the chicken suffered.
I would gladly go to work for minimum wage putting armor plate on
Hummers. Where do I volunteer? Disclaimer: Sincere Patriotic
Statement-no political meaning intended. I support our Fighting Men
and Women 100%.
Enjoy the ride. It should be fun.

USA Information Technology (IT) is at the same point USA automobile
makers found themselves at when Japan began to produce "desirable"
automobiles. IT in the USA may well, and deservedly, be passed by
Europe and Asia shortly.
Here is a sign of the times---
>In short, tech has become a commodity, largely standards-based, using
standard >components. Which is one reason my latest Toshiba laptop
(the Tecra M2) came sporting a >Made in China sticker -- my first one
from Toshiba. Well-made little sucker, too. The >Chinese make things
well.

I have observed a growing dichotomy between Enterprise and SMB IT.
Where will Linux, or Windows, fit in three years? Five years?

[_Reply-01_not directly to this question originally but important to the trend]
Bryan Smith wrote---
> But in reality, RISC/UNIX is largely dying below the 16-way space.  The
> R&D isn't being put there anymore, because it's hard to compete with the
> economies-of-scale.  About the only vendor that believes it can is IBM.
> The shift is largely due to the fact that Moore's Law is dying.

Is this not where most of us SOHO and SMB users play?
I would love to have 16-way performance for the 1-way price.
The "Big Boys" are responding to IBM's very effective marketing
Strategy of selling 32-way hardware populated at the 16-way level and
charging a discounted 16-way price.
This allows an upgrade past 16-way without a "box swap".

[_Reply-01_first reply directly to the Fundamental shift statement]
>Bryan Smith wrote---
> The shift is largely due to the fact that Moore's Law is dying.
> This was expected by 2006 by the SIA (Semiconductor Industry
> Association), among other things.

> The new way around Moore's Law, at least short-term, is multiple cores.
> And that's where AMD is more prepared thanx to how its CPUs
> interconnect, and Intel has real problems with aged AGTL+.

Microsoft is tied tightly to Intel. If Intel goes down?
I am sure Microsoft can morph to whatever PC processors are out there but?
How does Microsoft losing influence help Linux?
Most Linux gains have been at the expense of Unix platforms.
There is a real shift by USA corporations now away from Microsoft.
These same corporations show no interest in Linux.
This is an opinion based on my reading and a few live data points.

Thanks,

Robert