[NTLUG:Discuss] DeCSS -- losing the limelight

[Steve Baker]

Brian Koontz wrote:
>
> Which do you think is now the larger threat to the MPAA:  DeCSS or DivX?

They *should* be more concerned with DivX - but it doesn't infringe
and anti-reverse engineering/patent/whatever rules - so it would be
pretty hard to kill.

The actual large threat is the COMBINATION of DeCSS and DivX.
Either one by itself isn't really going to kill them...but
put them together and toss in some of the new broadband net
technologies...it won't be long before you can download
600Mb faster than you can drive to Blockbusters (twice).

The sheer inevitability of all of this leads me to wonder
what happens when sound and video is easily copied and
transmitted over the web.

Assuming this trend continues - as it inevitably will -
how does anyone make enough money from sales to cover their
creative costs?

* Advertising?   I hope not - adverts every couple of
  minutes throughout a movie would NOT be good - and in
  any case, it'll be easy to skip over them and edit them
  out when it's all digital...and it's only a matter of
  time until some AI guru figures out how to skip them
  automatically by looking at the content.

* Taxation?  In England, the BBC is covered by taxation
  giving free (and advertising-free) TV and radio. Perhaps
  Hollywood should be funded that way and all movies
  given away for free.  A really up-market movie costs
  maybe $1 per head of US population - so a $50 per head
  movie tax would fund a brand new movie every week
  distributed free to everyone who wanted it via the web.

* Voluntary contributions?  Like channel 13 TV and KERA
  radio?  Where would you hold the pledge drive?

* Tee shirt sales?

* Perhaps improving technology makes movies so cheap
  to produce that 'freeware' movies take over from
  commercial offerings.  Realistic 3D rendered actors
  with fancy AI behaviour could do that for you in
  due time.  It could be just like OpenSource software
  where the actions of hundreds of volunteer script
  writers, directors and 3D renderers would add up to
  a product on a par to something that big business
  could produce.

* Perhaps the movie companies realise that releasing
  the movie on DVD/whatever ultimately brings in
  so little revenue (because of piracy) that they
  might as well only show it in movie theatres where
  they can keep control of their valuable data.
  They'd lose a ton of money from DVD/VHS sales
  but movie seats would be fuller - think of the
  number of people who say "Nah - I'm not going to
  the movie theater - I'll wait for it to come out
  on video."

I think something like this has got to happen if
we still want to see movies ten years from now.

-- 
Steve Baker                  http://web2.airmail.net/sjbaker1
sjbaker1 at airmail.net (home)  http://www.woodsoup.org/~sbaker
sjbaker at hti.com      (work)